the collapse of Wall Street

华尔街的溃败
the collapse of Wall street

华尔街多么的接近崩溃——而作为结果，金融系统将如何进行改变。
the Wall street is such close to collapse, and how will the financial system change as result

网络版专稿 记者 焦建 “企业即将完成一场伟大的探险事业，但却没人知道这探险的内容究竟是什么。”发生在1720年南海公司身上的故事，在21世纪有了翻版。

EEO, web version reporter, Jiao Jian. “now the enterprise is going to achieve a great adventure but no one knows what exact in that adventure.” a same story happened in south sea company now had another version in 21 century.

现代金融业承诺奇迹发生，诱使天才和“威尼斯商人”们在同一个舞台登场——不可避免的，以毁灭结局。早在2005年的时候，格林斯潘就说过，“和仅仅四分之一个世纪之前的金融系统相比，不断增加的复杂的金融投资工具使得现今的金融系统变得过于死板、低效和缺乏弹性。”这话用在之前的贝尔斯登和今天的雷曼兄弟身上再恰当不过——到目前为止，美国最大的五大投行中，已经有三个中枪倒下了。

modern financial industry promised the possible of micricle which attract talent and merchant come on the same stage, unavoidable will result with destroy. Greny Spain had said in 2005 that, compare with the financial system only 1/4 century before, those continually increase complex invest tools made the financial world today is much much rigid, inefficient, and lack of flex ability. now his word is actually working on Bersiden and Rahmen Brother. so far, 3 of 5 biggest American invest bank are collapse.

在现代金融业的批评者那里，贝尔斯登和雷曼的最终结局是放任主义哲学的必然结果。这种管理措施过分放纵了毫无管制的金融服务创新及其扩张。这一切造就了一个复杂、独立的金融体制。而它恰好和公众的利益是有冲突的——在次贷销售市场里随处可见猖獗的欺诈行为。而过分的考虑短期收入使得银行家和基金经理们根本不考虑其所作所为将会引起什么样子的长期后果。他们的博弈游戏建立在这样的认识基础上——假如有一天灾难降临，肯定有其他人——不管是借贷者、投资者还是纳税人——将会承担至少是一部分的损失。

according to those criticize which against modern financial system, the outcome of Breston and Rahmen is actually the inevitable result of the freedom philosophy. this kind of measures allowed the unlimited or uncontrolled creation and extension of financial services. and all of those created a complicate and independent system which is against the public benefit, the fraudulent conducts can be found every where in the loan market. the excessive consideration on short term profit makes those bankers and fund managers have to idea on the consequences in a long term of what they do. and their game rule is founded on a basic that there will always be some one, no matter the borrowers, investors or taxpayers, who pay at least some part of their lost.

自从金融投资的的古典时代结束之后，金融业每十几年都会经历一次动荡和繁荣的周期。但过去的十年间格外的让人觉得难受。亚洲金融危机、长期基金管理的崩溃、网络泡沫危机，现在也许你可以称之为第一次“信贷皮炎”危机。假如说批评者的判断正确而且金融业里的某些东西确实已经破灭了的话，接下来将是一股回归管制的风潮。金融业将恢复到就像Alistair Darling所说的那种“优良的旧式银行业”的状态中去。但批评者的预言正确吗？到底金融业存在着什么问题？如何才能够解决它们？

since the classic era of financial investment goes to end, a big turbulence and booming will take place in every decade.but recent 10 years is particularly suffering people. Asia financial crisis, the collapse of long-term fund, web bubble, and now maybe a loan cold is turned on. if those criticizes are right and something in financial system were actually destroyed then the next trend would be back to restrain. the financial system will backward to the good old style bank service. are those criticizes right? what is the exact problem in financial industry? and what is the solution?

幸福时光
happy times

早在1980年代，今日的灾难种子就已经埋下。和今日金融业的增长形势比起来，那时候的增长可能只是现今一个尾巴。据最近的一项相关调查显示，研究美国金融服务业增长的数据可以发现，其所占的整个公司业利润份额的比重从1980年代早期的10%上升到去年的峰值时已经达到了40%，而其所占的整个股票市场的市值也从6%上升到19%。这样的数字显然是不合适的甚至是不能成立的——特别是当你考虑到整个金融业只占美国公司也产值的15%，只提供了5% 的就业岗位的时候。

the seed of this financial disaster had been plant during 80s in last century. compare with the trend of growth today, it was just look like a little tail in that time. according to one recent investigation on the increase of American financial service, its profit share of has been growled from 10 percent in 1980 to a peak figure last year about 40 percent, and its share of stock market is also growth from 6 percent to 19. this kind of proportion is apparently not reasonable or solid, especially when you take in count that, the whole financial industry is shared only 15 percent in all kinds of company and provided only 5 percent of employment.

一开始这样的增长建立在牢固的资产价格升值的基础之上。直到2000年之前的沸腾的牛市岁月见证的是无比辉煌的增长数字。整个世界的央行美联储驯服了通胀，利率不断下调而资产价格不断上升。站在这一切背后的发动机是公司再造、薪酬竞争和革命性的信息技术带来的利润。而典型的增长数字14%则几乎是早些时候的四倍。共有基金的数字也增长了不止四倍。

at first, the increase is based on the solid capital price. those old happy time in stockmarket had proved those glory increase until 2000. central bank for whole world the FED had almost tamed the inflation, the price of capital is up when the interest rate is falling down. it was the profit com from by company recreation, salary competition and the revolution IT technology stand behind. the typical increase rate 14 percent reached almost 4 times of before. and the common fund had raised more than 4 times.

但当2001年dotcom泡沫破裂的时候，一些事情改变了。自那以后美国的GDP增长数低于1950年代以来的任何一个循环周期的最低点。汇丰银行有经济学家指出消费增长、投资和出口的总额在这一个循环周期里也相应的变得衰弱不堪。

everything has changed when the dotcom bubble had exploded. the GDP increase rate of American had fall to the lowest point since 1950. economist from HSBC indicated that the weakness of consumption increase and total investment and exporting during that time.

但当大家都跑到悬崖边的时候，金融服务业却依旧奋进高歌。即使坚实的基础已经消失的无影无踪了。

the financial serivice industry always running even when everyone feel it was steep cliff which absolutedly destroied the solid basis.

这个行业公然无视地心引力，所凭借的就是借贷、“信贷皮炎”和不断的从产权交易中扩大收入和利润。饥饿的投资者们一意孤行决意在这条道上走到黑。 2000年之后，掌握在对冲基金手中的资产价格因为其高昂的费用和杠杆效应已经涨了五倍。另外，整个行业借助计算数字和杠杆的综合效应产生了一股革新的大潮。以信用违约互换的市值为例，已经达到了也令人生愕的45万亿美元。在1980年的坏账比例仅有十分之一，而现在已经达到了一半之巨。

this industry openly ignore the gravity and relys on loan, and profit from continuelly growing ownership trading. those straving investors almost decided walk to the end in this way. after 2000, the price of hedge funds had raised 5 times for its expensive fee and lever effect. on the other hand, the whole industry had goes to a new innovation trend which relys on the digital technique and lever effect. take a instance, the market of creadit deafult swaps had reached the increadible 45000 billion dollar. compare with the bad debt portion 10 percent in 1980, now had increased to almost 50 percent.

和过去大部分依靠自有资金经营相比，这样的过程逐渐使得投行们变成了负债机器。高登和美林都是如此。类似传动的机制使得在上升的市场里万事OK，而一旦市场进入危机，则一此小小的资产价格下跌则可能造成一次大出血。

compare with those service relys on equity, this process had gradually make invest banks become the machine of producing debt like Gonden and Merlin. this kind of frame give alway good news when the market is growing but crisis only once fall down of the capital price.

投行们的胆子很可能是被低息贷款鼓起来的，低消费价格膨胀又使得情况加剧。在更加规范的市场时期，信贷控制或者金本位将严格的控制信贷产生。而最近的情形则是央行被投行们的信心所鼓动起来。流动性的过剩和金融公司们过分追求收益的结果自然是导致目前美国次贷市场的病态繁荣景象。

low interest loans and price growth of comsuption not only mustered the courage of investor banks but also intensify the situation. and recently the central bank had been motivated by those investor banks. as a result of too much liquidity and excessive ambition from financial enterprises, the loan market of Amrican goes to sick prosperity.

负债之舞
the dance of debt

金融业没走到悬崖是很大一部分是因为金融资产自身在繁荣时期的增长惯性。自从1970年代开始，繁荣时期的债务增长就远高于资产的增长。这种正循环能够不断的重复自身。加入金融企业不断的把借来的钱用来购买更多的他们用以抵押的证券的话，这些证券的价格将会不断的水涨船高。进入下一个循环就是，它们更加敢去借更多的债务再买更多的证券。

the reason for financial industry did not reached steep cliff is the captical inertia of booming. since 1970, the debt increase rate of debt is far more higher than captial growth. this kind of circulate can be looped by itself. if money invested in financial enterprise used to purchase more debt then the price of stocks will continuelly rising, and enter another circulate which fuel them to purchase more stocks by more debt.

确实，假如它们想不这么继续干下去的话很快就会受到股东们的惩罚——就像Chuck Prince在危机诞生前几周，在评论其操控的花旗银行时候所说的那样——花旗“依旧在跳舞”。Prince先生很快就因为其缺乏远见而遭到嗤笑。事实上真正的原因是他无意间透露出了整个金融界的尴尬秘密：他已经开始一场不能有结尾的“舞剧”中。而事实上，每个人都在跳舞。

indeed, they may soon be punished by stockholders if stop doing so, just like Chuck Prince had said few weeks before the crisis take place. he commented HSBC was still on dancing. and soon be laughed at by his lack of vision. but the truth is he did revealed unintentionally the embarrassed secert of whole financial world. they already started a dance drama with no end, and in fact everyone is dancing in that drama.

可是早晚总有一天，音乐会停下来。当舞会结束，那些造就了丰裕景象的机制将会同样的毁灭这一切。所有的东西在价格下降的时候都会引来买家。但证券除外。当越来越多的资产被出卖，这使得证券价格下降，然后又使得这个循环不断的加剧。等到降无可降的时候，一切都结束了。

someday, when music stoped and drama goes end, then the frame which bring the booming situation will be destroied with no doubt. the fall down price will attract buyers. more and more capticalize will be sale exept the stocks and bonds, this fuel again the fall down trend of price, and intensify again this bad circulate. when the price is nothing left then everything goes to the end.

而糟糕的管理又加剧了这一切。每年底的交易的红利就已经兑现，而此时交易的真正的价值还尚未确立。早些时候一份监管报告指出投行的基金经理们的表现是多么的糟糕，也许吧，假如他们被正确的追求驱动的话，这些经理们会做的更好些才是。

terrible management had intensify all these situation, bonus had been cashed on every end of years when the truth value of trade had not been sured. a earlier monitor report had indicated that how terrible performance of those fund managers, however, maybe they would be better if motivated by a right direction.

lan Johnson预计说今后高管们的红利将有一部分视银行们长久的表现而定。而现今已经有很多高管们的薪酬是以一部分他们无法立即出售的股票来兑现的了。而贝尔斯登的雇员们持有接近三分之一的公司股份，他们已经是会长远考虑问题的了。

Ian Johnson predicted that bonus for those senior managers will partly stands on long-term performance of bank in later years. and now the salary of most senior managers are cashed partly by those stocks which can not be saled immediately. and employers in Beriston had one third of stocks, they had already considered in further vision.